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Wednesday, August 4, 2010

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Citizens and Poll Workers Declare First Automated Elections in Philippines a Success, but Flaws Remain

Posted: 04 Aug 2010 04:06 PM PDT

By Steven Rood

Last week, two separate quantitative studies on the May 10 elections underscored the striking gains demonstrated by automating the elections; however, evidence remains of serious deficiencies in the electoral process. Some entertain more fundamental doubts, but survey readings of the opinions of ordinary voters, systematic study of the experience of poll workers, and an official parallel “random manual audit” all show gains.

Automated elections in the Philippines

June SWS surveys declared the first automated elections in the Philippines a success, despite some glitches with the new scanning machines, above.

Social Weather Stations, the leading non-governmental polling organization in the Philippines, on July 28 released the results of June surveys sponsored by The Asia Foundation on experience of both citizens and (separately) poll workers, known as BEIs (for Board of Election Inspectors). Citizen satisfaction with the general conduct of elections jumped from the low 50s for the 2004 and 2007 elections to 75 percent in 2010. The believability of results for senator, congressional representative, governor, and mayor all increased. Judgment that the Commission on Elections (COMELEC) had honestly counted the votes leapt from 55 percent after the 2007 elections to 83 percent in 2010. In short, belief that there had been “cheating at some level, not limited to the precinct level” dropped from 47 percent in 2007 to (a still worrisome) 34 percent in 2010. The Filipino electorate's stubborn adherence to elections (77 percent think that “elections are a good way of making the government pay attention to what the people think”) seems vindicated.

The results of a separate scientific sample survey of 480 BEIs parallel the data about citizen opinion. Satisfaction with the general conduct of the elections went up from 78 percent in 2007 to 90 percent in 2010. Eighty-four percent of these polling place workers said that the 2010 elections were better than the 2007 elections.

On July 29 a technical working group (which included the Parish Pastoral Council for Responsible Voting and the National Statistical Office) released to the media the results of the Random Manual Audit. The Manual Audit was accomplished by randomly selecting five precincts from each of the 229 legislative districts (a total of 1,145 precincts) on election day and sending special teams of BEIs to those precincts. The ballot boxes were opened, and votes counted by hand to compare the tally produced by the Precinct Count Optical Scan (PCOS) machines and automatically transmitted to canvassing stations. The result of the re-count showed a 99.6 percent accuracy. The most significant problem found was in one precinct in Manila, where the scanned images of the ballots had a line through them that was not on the original ballots – possibly caused by physical contamination in the scanner, which caused some discrepancies in the vote count for mayor of that city. While this provided fodder for the election protest of a losing candidate in that contest, the COMELEC adjudged the accuracy within the 99 percent range overall.

This is not to say that the election process was flawless. In particular, buying of votes was rampant, with 15 percent of voters saying they personally witnessed it and 24 percent saying they heard about it from reliable sources. This dovetails with the report of the election watchdog group, National Movement for Free Elections (NAMFREL), which in its terminal report on the May elections discussed how vote-buying seemed to have been shifted from “wholesale” (affecting how votes were counted and aggregated) to “retail” influence of individual voters.

Still, the May 2010 elections represented a distinct improvement over the past. 65 percent of citizens felt that the use of the PCOS machines lessened cheating in the counting of votes. It seems that this is true even in the most challenging of situations. In Maguindanao, where the infamous massacre took place last November 2009, the clan head of the alleged perpetrators, Datu Andal Ampatuan, ran for vice governor. He was defeated by neophyte Ismael Mastura, who was the running mate of victorious candidate (now governor) Esmael Mangudadatu, whose relatives were the victims of the massacre. Vice Governor Mastura said that he would never have beaten Datu Andal without the speed of electronic counting of votes and transmission of votes, which prevented all post-election cheating.

Steven Rood is The Asia Foundation’s Country Representative for the Philippines and Pacific Island Nations. He can be reached at srood@asiafound.org.

No Winners from the Sinking of the Cheonan

Posted: 04 Aug 2010 04:05 PM PDT

By Scott Snyder

Two months ago, the sinking of the South Korean corvette Cheonan appeared to mark a turning point in inter-Korean relations. The South Korean interim investigation identified a North Korean torpedo as the cause of the sinking, providing South Korea and the United States with a strong case to take the issue to the UN Security Council and hold North Korea accountable for its actions. But the July 10 UN Presidential Statement failed to explicitly hold North Korea accountable. This series of events has turned out to represent a setback for all concerned.

Despite close coordination with the United States – most recently evidenced by the 2+2 in Seoul during which Secretary Clinton and Secretary Gates reaffirmed with their South Korean counterparts the closeness of the alliance, followed by the “Invincible Spirit” naval exercises – South Korea has failed to make North Korea pay a price for its actions and has over-reached in its efforts to mobilize international condemnation of Pyongyang.

Read the full piece on the Council on Foreign Relations blog Asia Unbound.

Scott Snyder directs The Asia Foundation’s Center for U.S.-Korea Policy. He can be reached at ssnyder@asiafound-dc.org.

Duch Verdict Announced in Cambodia: Public Forum Brings Together Victims of Khmer Rouge

Posted: 04 Aug 2010 04:04 PM PDT

By Gavin Tritt

Last week, after much anticipation, the Extraordinary Chambers in the Court of Cambodia (ECCC) issued the verdict in case 001 in the Khmer Rouge Tribunal. The trial found Kaing Guek Eav, commonly known under his alias “Duch” – the warden of Tuol Sleng prison, or S-21 – guilty of war crimes and crimes against humanity. The guilty verdict was not a surprise, but the sentence – 35 years, reduced for time served to 19 years – surprised some, and enraged others who said it wasn’t long enough for someone who had admitted to overseeing the torture and deaths of 16,000 people. The process of the first trial, criticized as being marred by corruption, political manipulation, infighting within the court, and other issues, has not been perfect, but the verdict has tremendous meaning for people in Cambodia. Case 002, the trial of Nuon Chea, known as “Brother Number 2,” and three other surviving key Khmer Rouge leaders, is slated to begin next year.

The Asia Foundation continues to support public education efforts in Cambodia, such as a recent public forum, organized by the Center for Justice & Reconciliation, which brought together Khmer Rouge victims, Tuol Sleng survivors, and members of the ECCC to discuss the advent of the Duch verdict. CJR founder Theary Seng blogs about the event. Events like these are important to long-term reconciliation efforts in Cambodia. They also raise awareness of the younger generation in Cambodia, among whom the history of the Khmer Rouge period is not well known. At such a historic moment for Cambodia, and with such strong memories and emotions in the room, it was inspiring to be in a conference hall with hundreds of university students learning the history of Cambodia first-hand from the victims and survivors of the Khmer Rouge.

Gavin Tritt is The Asia Foundation’s Country Representative in Cambodia. He can be reached at gtritt@asiafound.org.

Asia Foundation Trustee David Lampton Awarded Scalapino Prize for Paper on U.S.-China Relations

Posted: 04 Aug 2010 04:03 PM PDT

“The U.S.-China relationship is fundamentally stable and will remain so for the foreseeable future,” begins David Lampton, Asia Foundation trustee and director of China Studies at The Johns Hopkins School for Advanced International Studies, in his new paper “Power Constrained: Sources of Mutual Strategic Suspicion in U.S-China Relations.” “This is so because the relationship is anchored in the two societies’ respective preoccupations with their own domestic problems, the United States’ draining commitments elsewhere, and the requirement for cooperation on transnational issues such as proliferation, global production chain security, energy, the environment, stabilizing the world economy, and many other positive-sum opportunities.”

Dr. Lampton was recently awarded the prestigious Scalapino Prize for this landmark paper in recognition of his contributions to America’s understanding of the vast changes underway in Asia from the National Bureau of Asian Research (NBR) and the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars at the Asia Policy Assembly.

A full version of Dr. Lampton’s paper can be downloaded from NBR’s website.

What Political Settlements Mean for International Development

Posted: 04 Aug 2010 04:02 PM PDT

By Thomas Parks and William S. Cole

The impact of international development assistance depends, to a large extent, on the ability and willingness of development actors to factor the political landscape into aid programs. It is not uncommon to hear of carefully conceived development programs, meticulously and thoughtfully designed with ample funding, that have been undermined by powerful local actors with other agendas. This same story is heard across the whole spectrum of development work. Programs that mobilize civil society or grass roots community groups to advocate for pro-poor reforms often fall short when faced with heavy resistance by powerful elite actors. In post-conflict environments, newly established state institutions that are designed with world class technical assistance to reflect state-of-the-art best practice do not function the way they were intended. Even when institutional reforms appear successful at the end of a project, in many cases, within a few years the institutions have become dysfunctional or co-opted by powerful elites.

What all this suggests is that the process of development is fundamentally shaped by powerful political, economic, and security actors in aid-recipient countries. These actors use their influence to shape and control formal governance institutions, policies, and the distribution of development assistance to advance their interests.

The international development community has been grappling with these problems for decades, but in searching for ways to improve aid effectiveness, we have often been looking in the wrong direction. The fundamental problem that undermines aid effectiveness across a broad range of development work is the assumption that poor governance, dysfunctional institutions, conflict, and fragile conditions can be fixed through the transfer of knowledge or technical assistance. The roles of powerful actors who are using their influence to prevent change are typically treated as external to assistance programs or are ignored altogether.

The political settlements framework is a new conceptual approach for international development organizations to better understand and respond to this reality and the challenges that result from political dynamics in developing countries. This framework allows policy-makers and development practitioners to understand how development is driven by competition among elite groups, as an alternative to development approaches that focus on capacity-building or technical assistance. The political settlements concept is particularly relevant for countries affected by protracted conflict or fragile conditions. Political settlements can often be the primary factor in determining the success or failure of statebuilding and peacebuilding efforts.

Focus on political settlements by the international development community raises important questions about the appropriate role of international donors in seeking to influence these internal dynamics. Is it legitimate for international actors to influence political settlements in aid recipient countries? In many contexts, donor assistance already has a significant influence on political settlements, at times strengthening and further entrenching settlements that can be highly exclusionary, destabilizing, or not conducive to development at all. Development assistance programs can create winners and losers in political terms, and the allocation of aid benefits can be heavily influenced by the political interests of those in power. By ignoring these problems, we may be contributing to corruption, impunity, and weak government legitimacy, and slowing down the process of change.

There is a critical need to develop a set of parameters or limits on what is an acceptable level of influence by international actors in the political settlements of aid-recipient countries. Influencing political settlements does not mean manipulation of local politics, or instigation of regime change. But without clear definitions and limits, the line between legitimate levels of influence and sovereignty infringement can become blurred, and the conduct of international development actors will be called into question.

In a new paper, published as part of The Asia Foundation's “Occasional Paper” series, we help translate these concepts into principles, strategies, and guidelines for action by donors and other development assistance organizations. This paper – “Political Settlements: Implications for International Development Policy and Practice” – presents a set of practical approaches for international development organizations to improve their positive influence on political settlements. These approaches illustrate the variety of ways in which development assistance can be designed or modified using the political settlements framework to improve development outcomes. While the long-term objective may be to support inclusive, stable, and developmental political settlements, the path to this ideal may be necessarily circuitous. Development organizations may need to adapt their strategies to promote the best-case scenario in the short term, while investing in long-term programs that will promote inclusiveness, development, and stability.

Download the full paper.

William S. Cole is The Asia Foundation’s Senior Director for Governance, Law, and Civil Society. Thomas Parks is The Asia Foundation’s Regional Director for Conflict and Governance based in Thailand. They can be reached at bcole@asiafound.org and tparks@asiafound.org, respectively.

Supporting Business Development in Rural Bangladesh: Role of Reliable Information in Policy Reforms

Posted: 04 Aug 2010 04:01 PM PDT

By Véronique Salze-Lozac’h, Nina Merchant-Vega, and Syed Al-Muti

Any casual observer walking through the heart of a district capital like Bangladesh’s northeastern city of Sylhet or Rangpur, further north, would be impressed by the bustling economic activity. In the early morning, streets are filled with colorful trucks honking their way toward the market place. Their paths are crossed by overloaded rickshaws delivering raw materials to nearby tailors and small manufacturers. Despite such signs of a vibrant economy, doing business in Bangladesh is far from easy.

Tailor shop in Bangladesh

In Bangladesh, business people, such as this shop worker, face basic challenges that stunt their growth potential, including cumbersome administrative procedures and lack of transparency from authorities.

In Bangladesh, where The Asia Foundation works with micro, small, and medium enterprises (MSMEs) at the district level, business people often complain about cumbersome administrative procedures, unfair tax administrations, obsolete regulations, and an overall lack of transparency from authorities. As a poultry farmer in Rajshahi recently expressed, “If the government offices do not have copies of laws, regulations, or circulars, then how will they help us? And where would we seek help in solving our problems?”

Often, the first interaction local MSMEs have with the public sector is at the local level. Thus, the role of local public authorities and public officials is key to providing a business environment that favors business development. However, local authorities are often perceived as being unaware of the difficulties faced by local enterprises.

For the first time in Bangladesh, business people from 19 districts across the country were asked to express their opinions on their local business environments. The results –complemented with data from published sources – were combined into the just-released 2010 Bangladesh Economic Governance Index (EGI) which ranks the districts according to the quality of their business enabling environment.

The EGI assesses and ranks localities on specific aspects of their regulatory environments. Using a rigorous methodology pioneered by The Asia Foundation, the 2010 EGI is comprised of 10 sub-indices – such as entry costs, transparency, and informal charges – that are relevant to Bangladesh’s local business environment. The Asia Foundation worked with a local research institute, Data International, based in Bangladesh, which interviewed more than 3,800 firms of all sizes and all sectors to collect the data needed to construct the indices and sub-indices.

The survey respondents were selected randomly from a listing of 55,736 formal and informal enterprises, from the 19 districts. This listing, conducted by Data International prior to the survey, shows that Bangladesh’s economy is dominated by micro-enterprises. More than 97 percent of these firms employ less than 10 workers and less than 1 percent of firms have 20 or more employees. Seventy percent are in wholesale and retail trade activities, while the remaining firms are engaged in manufacturing services. The listing also confirms that the private sector in Bangladesh is dominated by men, with less than half of one percent of firms owned by women.

The survey reveals that the overall ranking of the 19 districts in the EGI indicates clear “high” performers (Faridpur, Dinajpur, and Kushtia) and “low” performers (Tangail, Chittagong, Barisal, and Rajshahi). However, about 42 percent of the districts are clustered in the “medium” category, indicating that with some effort, these districts could easily climb up the rankings.

The EGI also provides specific information on each of the sub-indices in the composite index. For example, the entry cost sub-index (covering both time and monetary costs), shows a huge difference in performance between the top district of Patuakhali (reaching 8.47 on a scale of 10), and the capital city of Dhaka (lagging behind with a score of just over 3 points). In Patuakhali, firms never wait more than three days to obtain a trade license or a VAT certificate, while it can take up to 20 days for the low-performing districts.

Another example shows how implementation of reforms can improve districts’ performance in the area of transparency and access to information. On the transparency sub-index, the western district of Kushtia scores very high with almost eight points, indicating that it provides easy access to documents to its business community. On the other hand, the bottom seven districts all scored four points or lower, revealing that many districts have problems with transparency-related issues. With targeted reform efforts, these districts could improve their ranking with little effort.

These examples show how the EGI provides an opportunity for the private sector and the national and local authorities to better understand the strengths and weaknesses of each district and to identify good practices across districts. Using the EGI, government officials, businesses, and other stakeholders will be better positioned to build strategic public-private partnerships to address weak links and advocate for priority reforms. For business owners, like the poultry farmer in Rajshahi, these reforms will be key to building a healthier business environment.

The Bangladesh EGI is part of the Local Economic Governance Program – Enhancing the Sustainability and Stakeholder Ownership of Investment Climate Reforms in Bangladesh – implemented by The Asia Foundation with BICF funding. BICF is managed by IFC, in partnership with the United Kingdom’s Department for International Development and the European Union.

Véronique Salze-Lozac’h is The Asia Foundation’s Regional Director for Economic Programs in Cambodia, Nina Merchant-Vega is Assistant Director of the Economic Reform and Development Program in San Francisco, and Syed Al-Muti is the Project Director for the Local Economic Governance Program in Bangladesh. They can be reached at vsalze-lozach@asiafound.org, nmerchant@asiafound.org, and salmuti@asiafound.org, respectively.

[VIDEO] Barriers Challenge Bangladesh’s Promising Local Business Growth

Posted: 04 Aug 2010 04:00 PM PDT

Already the world’s most densely populated country, Bangladesh is expected to grow to over 200 million by 2025. While the country undergoes rapid urbanization and population growth, poverty remains severe, with 60 million Bangladeshis living below the poverty line. “Employment and private sector growth,” explains The Asia Foundation’s Local Economic Governance Project Director Syed Al-Muti in this video, “are key to breaking this cycle.” Unfortunately, significant barriers to doing business, like corruption, steep licensing fees, and local bureaucracy, are still stunting growth at the district level.
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